JMA’s Five-day Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast

Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting

The long-term goals of this project, which is being pursued in collaboration with R. L. Elsberry and M. A. Boothe, are to improve not only the quantitative accuracy of official tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts, but also the qualitative meteorological utility of those forecasts. Needed improvements in the accuracy of official TC track forecasts include: (i) reducing the severity and frequen...

Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics

The long-term goals are to understand how variabilities in the large-scale atmospheric environment and the internal tropical cyclone structure influence tropical cyclone track and intensity characteristics and define how these influences differ between developing, mature, and decaying tropical cyclones. During the initial stages of tropical cyclone development, structure and track characteristi...

Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast

The Dynamics of Tropical Cyclones

The specific objectives of the current effort are: 1. To continue our study of the dynamical processes in tropical cyclones responsible for looping or erratic motion; 2. To continue the development of methods for (a) the introduction of synthetic tropical-cyclone-scale vortices in operational forecast models and (b) ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones; 3. To continue a sensitivity study o...

Outline of the High Resolution Global Model at the Japan Meteorological Agency

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded the resolution of the Global Spectral Model (GSM) from TL319L40 to TL959L60 on 21 November 2007, when the Typhoon Model retired from operational use. Since then, tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity forecasts have been supported by GSM only. GSM provides numerical weather prediction (NWP) products four times a day for all TCs existing globally...